So much for my promise to keep updating this blog on a more regular basis. Since I last wrote to you, so much has happened outside my window that I just had to sit there for hours on end and stare at it. Early in December, it snowed. Early in January, it went all foggy. How much more exciting could it possibly get than that?
Anyway, the announcement today of this year's Oscar nominations made me think of both of you, and I resolved to blog upon this subject for your edification.
First off, let me make it perfectly clear that the Oscars were never meant to get this big. The first ceremony, which took place in 1929 I believe, was a reasonably formal dinner in some hotel in Hollywood when, at some point during the evening, a few announcements were made giving the Tinseltown community's views on what the best films of the previous 'season' were. All the winners were known prior to the ceremony; there was no surprises, no gushing speeches, no red carpet and no E! Entertainment channels making 3-hour programmes on the nominees' dresses.
This year, there are 10, yes ten, nominees for Best Picture. The Academy's choices are now so stale and predictable that you can practically name them all the day after the previous year's awards.
For the record, here are my predictions for the year's winners in the major categories. Bear in mind that there cannot be a 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest' style clean sweep of the major awards this year:
BEST PICTURE The King's Speech
BEST DIRECTOR Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
BEST ACTOR Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
BEST ACTRESS Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Christian Bale (The Fighter)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
BEST SCREENPLAY (Orig.) David Seidler (The King's Speech)
BEST SCREENPLAY (Adap.) Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
BEST MUSICAL SCORE Alexander Desplat (The King's Speech)
BEST SONG Randy Newman ('We Belong Together' Toy Story 3)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Alice in Wonderland
BEST ART DIRECTION Alice in Wonderland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The King's Speech
BEST FILM EDITING Black Swan
BEST MAKEUP The Wolfman [only 3 nominees???]
BEST SOUND EDITING Tron: Legacy
BEST SOUND MIXING Inception
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Toy Story 3
So there we have it. Even I can't take this as gospel though; if Jeff Bridges wins, he will become only the third actor in human history, after Spencer Tracy & Tom Hanks, to win Best Actor two years in a row, so that in itself makes it unlikely, no matter how good he is. And Bridges always delivers. Speaking of True Grit, one must also consider the merits of a remake gaining so many major nominations. It begs the question...why? Academy voters, I can assure you (because I know one or two of them) will be reluctant to go for Bridges since John Wayne won his only Best Actor award for the original film. Wayne's Oscar was seen very much as a sympathy one, after years of far superior performances failed to gain even a single nomination. The same accusation cannot be levelled at Bridges, since, as I have mentioned already, he already has one statue on his mantlepiece, for last year's Crazy Heart.
According to my predictions, The King's Speech will win 6 Oscars, Black Swan will win 3. Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland will win 2 each, with one each for Tron: Legacy, True Grit, The Social Network, The Fighter and Inception.
Of course, I could be completely wrong, but I fear Danny Boyle will walk away empty-handed this year, as will the makers of Winter's Bone, and The Kids Are All Right. Despite the predictability of the nominations, some categories are still a complete mystery: why, for example, only three nominees each for Best Makeup and Best Animated Film. Certainly in the latter category, there has been such an enormous deluge of CGI 'animated' films in 3-D that I could come up with more than three nominations without even thinking. Where, for example, is Shrek: Forever After, a far superior film to Toy Story 3. Yes, you heard it here first. Well, probably not first, as I would expect many other sad and lonely bloggers to be writing exactly the same on their unread dissertations.
There are a couple of categories where I was a little unsure about my decision. Best Supporting Actress could go any one of the five ways; I picked Helena Bonham Carter because of the fact that 'life partner' Tim Burton is up for several awards for his Alice in Wonderland, and it could make for some great photo opportunities at the after-show party. Best Original Screenplay is quite a strong category this year, and again it could go any one of the five ways here.
It would be silly of me to speculate on the categories for Best Documentary, Best Short Documentary, Best Foreign Language Film etc., etc., because I haven't seen a single one of them.
Hey ho, we look forward to February 27. The Oscars this year are sponsored by Hyundai, by the way.
